Today: DL 1059 at 23:00 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–39%.

Safest bet today DL 1059 ATL 23:00 → CHA 23:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest DL 3579 ATL 17:38 → CHA 18:38 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1059 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	CHA 23:55	18%	7%	0.2%	68%
DL 5376 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 17:47	CHA 18:45	20%	7%	0.2%	73%
DL 1904 Delta	ATL 22:52	CHA 23:50	21%	7%	0.2%	no record
DL 1366 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	CHA 22:13	21%	7%	0.2%	88%
DL 3124 Delta	ATL 16:44	CHA 17:42	24%	7%	0.3%	no record
DL 1722 Delta	ATL 19:34	CHA 20:32	27%	8%	0.2%	no record
DL 3150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:40	CHA 19:33	28%	8%	0.2%	67%
DL 3579 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 17:38	CHA 18:38	39%	24%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON