Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1500 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1500 ATL 07:25 → CLE 09:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4036 ATL 18:56 → CLE 20:52 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	CLE 09:10	8%	2%	0.8%	93%
DL 2978 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	CLE 11:32	13%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 775 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:50	CLE 13:32	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 2545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:36	CLE 15:20	16%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 880 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	CLE 17:13	16%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 1350 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:51	CLE 18:42	16%	4%	0.7%	79%
DL 1320 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	CLE 00:49	18%	4%	0.7%	79%
DL 1339 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	CLE 21:45	20%	5%	0.8%	78%
DL 2150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:40	CLE 23:30	22%	5%	0.7%	70%
F9 2410 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:56	CLE 11:49	27%	9%	1.3%	74%
F9 4036 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:56	CLE 20:52	39%	14%	2.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON