Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5176 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 5176 ATL 06:24 → CLT 07:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5175 ATL 15:50 → CLT 17:06 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5176 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 06:24	CLT 07:55	12%	5%	1.3%	91%
DL 3177 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:41	CLT 23:58	12%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 3190 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	CLT 11:26	13%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 3144 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:38	CLT 08:49	14%	2%	0.8%	92%
OH 5463 PSA	ATL 05:16	CLT 06:39	14%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 5507 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 05:00	CLT 06:25	14%	6%	1.3%	85%
DL 2157 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:20	CLT 13:31	16%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 5329 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 06:44	CLT 08:00	16%	5%	1.3%	94%worse than usual
DL 3158 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	CLT 18:19	18%	4%	0.7%	70%
AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 18:44	CLT 20:18	18%	10%	1.2%	49%
DL 720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:55	CLT 20:14	19%	5%	0.8%	56%
DL 3031 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	CLT 16:17	20%	3%	0.7%	74%
AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 11:11	CLT 12:36	21%	8%	0.8%	83%
AA 739 American	ATL 10:46	CLT 11:55	22%	5%	1.3%	no record
DL 3139 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:40	CLT 21:57	22%	4%	0.7%	74%
AA 5041 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 15:06	CLT 16:37	24%	9%	1.0%	52%
AA 5063 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 09:10	CLT 10:26	27%	7%	1.2%	88%worse than usual
AA 5175 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 15:50	CLT 17:06	28%	8%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON