Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1479 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1479 ATL 07:30 → CMH 09:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1545 ATL 19:54 → CMH 21:33 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	CMH 09:02	6%	1%	0.8%	90%
DL 1522 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	CMH 11:48	10%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:06	CMH 13:38	12%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:18	CMH 15:56	13%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 1501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:05	CMH 00:44	13%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 2200 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:25	CMH 15:59	14%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 203 Southwest	ATL 09:30	CMH 11:10	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2280 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:55	CMH 17:34	16%	3%	0.7%	65%
DL 1459 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:03	CMH 23:40	17%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:25	CMH 19:03	17%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 1545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	CMH 21:33	19%	4%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON