Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 963 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 963 ATL 07:35 → CVG 08:56 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 4771 ATL 10:16 → CVG 11:48 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 963 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	CVG 08:56	12%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2395 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:11	CVG 00:39	15%	3%	0.9%	81%
DL 1008 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	CVG 16:41	16%	2%	0.9%	79%
DL 3169 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:48	CVG 15:11	16%	2%	1.0%	80%
DL 1858 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:48	CVG 23:15	17%	3%	0.9%	67%
DL 3160 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:59	CVG 11:25	17%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2248 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:32	CVG 21:01	18%	3%	1.0%	76%
DL 3149 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:04	CVG 12:27	19%	3%	1.2%	84%
DL 3119 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	CVG 19:25	19%	3%	0.9%	78%
F9 4771 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:16	CVG 11:48	31%	8%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON