Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3108 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 3108 ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 3088 ATL 16:17 → DAY 17:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3108 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:00	DAY 10:30	17%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2763 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:35	DAY 15:04	20%	4%	0.8%	88%
DL 3167 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:20	DAY 23:51	24%	5%	0.8%	83%
DL 3088 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:17	DAY 17:50	28%	5%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON