Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2114 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2114 ATL 06:25 → DEN 07:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 3599 ATL 20:53 → DEN 22:28 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2114 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 06:25	DEN 07:30	6%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 211 Southwest	ATL 06:15	DEN 07:29	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 340 United Flight history →	ATL 07:30	DEN 08:51	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2235 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	DEN 08:34	9%	2%	0.8%	93%
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:12	DEN 09:22	11%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:55	DEN 14:00	12%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 530 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	DEN 14:58	12%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 706 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:55	DEN 13:00	13%	2%	0.7%	87%
UA 1327 United Flight history →	ATL 11:10	DEN 12:28	14%	4%	0.7%	91%
DL 995 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:54	DEN 11:05	14%	2%	0.7%	86%
UA 235 United Flight history →	ATL 16:22	DEN 18:06	15%	4%	0.6%	79%
DL 519 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:43	DEN 17:56	15%	3%	0.7%	69%
DL 493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:54	DEN 22:12	15%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 746 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	DEN 20:43	16%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 956 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	DEN 00:23	16%	3%	0.7%	77%
F9 1449 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DEN 09:03	19%	6%	0.9%	69%
F9 3293 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 12:33	DEN 14:00	20%	9%	1.3%	80%
WN 202 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 09:30	DEN 10:40	22%	3%	0.6%	79%
WN 3002 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 18:20	DEN 19:40	22%	5%	0.5%	44%
F9 3599 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:53	DEN 22:28	30%	12%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON