Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1704 ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2306 ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1704 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:33	DSM 10:45	14%	2%	0.3%	88%
DL 2094 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:25	DSM 13:34	15%	3%	0.2%	90%
DL 2086 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:37	DSM 17:52	21%	3%	0.3%	82%
DL 2306 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	DSM 22:29	23%	4%	0.7%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON