Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1646 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1646 ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1264 ATL 22:35 → DTW 00:40 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1646 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:00	DTW 08:54	9%	2%	0.2%	92%
DL 2160 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	DTW 10:10	12%	3%	0.3%	80%
DL 643 Delta	ATL 08:24	DTW 10:19	13%	3%	0.3%	no record
DL 1240 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	DTW 12:56	16%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 1031 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:47	DTW 15:42	16%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 1005 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:28	DTW 17:27	18%	5%	0.8%	79%
DL 1298 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:20	DTW 11:10	18%	3%	0.2%	87%
DL 2067 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:11	DTW 19:14	19%	5%	0.8%	76%
DL 2940 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	DTW 00:59	20%	4%	0.8%	73%
DL 1478 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:11	DTW 20:13	20%	6%	0.8%	76%
DL 1232 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:30	DTW 22:33	22%	6%	0.8%	68%
DL 1262 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:11	DTW 21:11	22%	5%	0.8%	69%
DL 651 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:45	DTW 23:44	25%	6%	0.8%	78%
F9 2898 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:50	DTW 11:57	28%	9%	0.9%	65%
F9 1264 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:35	DTW 00:40	39%	14%	0.9%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON