Today: DL 3131 at 23:27 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–33%.

Safest bet today DL 3131 ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2823 ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:27	ECP 23:37	16%	5%	1.3%	84%
DL 3048 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	ECP 08:12	16%	3%	1.0%	92%
DL 2494 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:35	ECP 20:46	18%	5%	1.3%	84%
DL 3053 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	ECP 17:55	22%	5%	2.1%	76%
DL 1359 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:27	ECP 12:31	24%	4%	1.3%	86%
DL 3045 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:41	ECP 10:48	26%	4%	1.0%	88%worse than usual
DL 3094 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:01	ECP 16:12	29%	5%	1.4%	80%
DL 2823 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:49	ECP 13:54	33%	7%	1.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON