Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2815 at 17:53, 18%.

Safest bet today DL 2815 ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest DL 1472 ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2815 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:53	EYW 19:51	18%	3%	1.0%	77%
DL 2168 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	EYW 17:23	19%	4%	1.2%	79%
DL 1281 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:06	EYW 11:00	28%	4%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
DL 1472 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:30	EYW 13:23	43%	6%	0.7%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON