tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:40 am at Atlanta)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2615 at 18:16, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2615 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:16 FSD 19:56 28% 9% 0.2% 79%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 3h 47m Minneapolis MSP 22:05 → FSD 23:06DL 1694 7h 28m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ATL 16:22 → DEN 18:06UA 235 3h 04m Denver DEN 21:10 → FSD 23:53UA 5700 · flown by SkyWest 8h 31m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → ATL 12:13 → ORD 13:30AA 1363 4h 00m Chicago ORD 17:30 → FSD 19:25AA 6200 · flown by SkyWest 8h 12m 94% 72%
DeltaDetails → ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 2h 24m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → FSD 19:36DL 3578 · flown by SkyWest 6h 05m 97% 69%
FrontierDetails → ATL 12:33 → DEN 14:00F9 3293 2h 42m Denver DEN 16:42 → FSD 19:23F9 2108 7h 50m 94% 64%
UnitedDetails → ATL 18:57 → ORD 20:23UA 1046 1h 07m Chicago ORD 21:30 → FSD 23:31UA 1842 5h 34m 77% 62%
AmericanDetails → ATL 14:55 → DFW 16:24AA 3104 3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:49 → FSD 21:58AA 2937 8h 03m 92% 60%
UnitedDetails → ATL 13:18 → ORD 14:41UA 745 1h 19m Chicago ORD 16:00 → FSD 17:53UA 4404 · flown by GoJet 5h 35m 82% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ATL 19:53 → ORD 21:30AA 1372 1h 00m Chicago ORD 22:30 → FSD 00:18 +1AA 4942 · flown by SkyWest 5h 25m 74% 57%
DeltaDetails → ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 46m Minneapolis MSP 14:36 → FSD 15:41DL 3538 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 46% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON