Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 787 ATL 09:59 → GEG 11:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 1843 ATL 19:45 → GEG 21:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 787 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:59	GEG 11:40	17%	3%	0.1%	85%
DL 814 Delta	ATL 09:50	GEG 11:43	17%	2%	0.1%	no record
DL 1843 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:45	GEG 21:32	18%	4%	0.8%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	1h 18m Denver	DEN 13:46 → GEG 15:11UA 324	7h 01m	91%	78%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 57m	92%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON