Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2058 at 15:19, 30%.

Safest bet today DL 2058 ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2865 ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 2058 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:19	GRR 17:14	30%	5%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
DL 2210 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	GRR 21:51	33%	7%	0.2%	80%worse than usual
DL 2865 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:59	GRR 23:54	35%	7%	0.3%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON