Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 19–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3005 ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 1604 ATL 17:52 → GSO 19:11 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3005 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	GSO 23:59	19%	4%	0.2%	85%
DL 1617 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:20	GSO 22:43	21%	4%	0.2%	81%
DL 1473 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:42	GSO 21:03	26%	4%	0.2%	76%
DL 3017 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:33	GSO 19:53	26%	4%	0.2%	82%
DL 1604 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:52	GSO 19:11	28%	4%	0.4%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON