Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3089 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 3089 ATL 08:15 → GSP 09:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2281 ATL 21:55 → GSP 22:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3089 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	GSP 09:13	11%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 2158 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:57	GSP 10:57	14%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 1273 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:07	GSP 14:01	15%	3%	1.2%	87%
DL 1725 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:16	GSP 12:14	15%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 3095 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:07	GSP 16:07	16%	4%	1.0%	80%
DL 1021 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	GSP 18:55	17%	5%	1.0%	79%
DL 2319 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:15	GSP 20:15	19%	4%	1.0%	81%
DL 3136 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:30	GSP 21:31	22%	5%	1.0%	75%
DL 2281 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:55	GSP 22:55	23%	5%	1.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON