Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:24 am at Atlanta)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Hilton Head Island on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Hilton Head Island on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ATL 07:25 → ORD 08:45AA 616	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → HHH 13:33AA 3862 · flown by Envoy	6h 08m	89%	67%
American Details →	ATL 11:11 → CLT 12:36AA 5039 · flown by PSA	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 15:09 → HHH 16:25AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	5h 14m	99%	61%
American Details →	ATL 09:10 → CLT 10:27AA 5063 · flown by PSA	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 13:00 → HHH 14:16AA 3562 · flown by Envoy	5h 06m	100%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON