Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 425 at 11:37 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 425 ATL 11:37 → IAH 12:47 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 4075 ATL 21:25 → IAH 22:39 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 425 United Flight history →	ATL 11:37	IAH 12:47	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 2376 United Flight history →	ATL 18:57	IAH 20:15	14%	5%	0.7%	60%
DL 1572 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:27	IAH 13:33	15%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 1682 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	IAH 11:14	15%	3%	0.7%	83%
UA 532 United Flight history →	ATL 07:05	IAH 08:15	16%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 1585 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	IAH 08:35	18%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 1601 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:48	IAH 23:57	18%	5%	0.6%	76%
F9 1403 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:07	IAH 07:20	18%	7%	1.0%	76%
DL 1131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:49	IAH 19:58	18%	6%	0.6%	59%
DL 2890 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:46	IAH 15:56	18%	4%	0.6%	69%
DL 1284 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:13	IAH 21:24	19%	6%	0.6%	73%
DL 1223 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	IAH 17:39	20%	5%	0.6%	68%
F9 2399 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:45	IAH 10:03	35%	10%	0.9%	79%worse than usual
F9 4075 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:25	IAH 22:39	35%	17%	0.9%	63%
UA 3992 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 15:57	IAH 17:23	28%	16%	0.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON