Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3013 at 11:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 3013 ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 2497 ATL 17:12 → IND 18:57 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	IND 12:36	10%	3%	0.9%	89%
DL 3134 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:48	IND 15:19	10%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 2657 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:04	IND 00:41	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 3125 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	IND 09:00	11%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 3126 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:45	IND 17:22	13%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 3120 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:25	IND 19:04	15%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 3153 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:56	IND 23:36	16%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 2979 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:35	IND 19:10	17%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 1482 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:51	IND 22:27	18%	3%	0.7%	72%
DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	IND 10:33	21%	4%	0.5%	91%worse than usual
WN 232 Southwest	ATL 17:20	IND 19:00	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 560 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 16:25	IND 18:05	24%	5%	0.6%	50%
F9 2497 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:12	IND 18:57	33%	14%	1.2%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON