tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 209 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 209 ATL 06:10 → LAS 07:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3923 ATL 19:11 → LAS 20:26 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time
Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 209 Southwest Flight history → ATL 06:10 LAS 07:15 8% 1% 0.7% 94%
WN 233 Southwest ATL 06:55 LAS 08:18 10% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 777 Delta Flight history → ATL 08:25 LAS 09:31 10% 2% 0.7% 86%
DL 466 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:00 LAS 12:02 14% 3% 0.7% 80%
DL 549 Delta Flight history → ATL 13:15 LAS 14:18 15% 3% 0.7% 80%
DL 945 Delta Flight history → ATL 09:55 LAS 11:00 15% 2% 0.7% 84%
DL 659 Delta Flight history → ATL 15:54 LAS 17:20 17% 4% 0.7% 81%
DL 711 Delta Flight history → ATL 16:40 LAS 17:52 18% 5% 0.7% 78%
DL 722 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:34 LAS 19:42 19% 5% 0.8% 63%
DL 825 Delta Flight history → ATL 21:20 LAS 22:35 20% 6% 0.7% 67%
DL 955 Delta Flight history → ATL 19:54 LAS 21:01 22% 6% 0.8% 68%
F9 4891 Frontier Flight history → ATL 08:46 LAS 10:12 31% 12% 1.2% 70%
WN 210 Southwest Flight history → ATL 20:10 LAS 21:30 31% 6% 0.6% 28%
F9 3923 Frontier Flight history → ATL 19:11 LAS 20:26 46% 17% 2.1% 59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → ATL 06:25 → DEN 07:30WN 2114 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:30 → LAS 09:25WN 1024 6h 00m 94% 86%
SouthwestDetails → ATL 07:10 → BNA 07:15WN 179 51m Nashville BNA 08:06 → LAS 10:12WN 579 6h 02m 90% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON