Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 763 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 763 ATL 06:59 → LAX 08:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest F9 3215 ATL 15:15 → LAX 16:54 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 763 Delta Flight history →	ATL 06:59	LAX 08:41	7%	2%	0.7%	68%
DL 996 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:15	LAX 08:48	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 8878 Delta	ATL 07:22	LAX 09:04	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 895 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:40	LAX 14:12	10%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 326 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:35	LAX 13:05	10%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 898 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	LAX 09:48	11%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 753 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:45	LAX 16:17	12%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	LAX 11:55	13%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1219 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:45	LAX 17:22	15%	3%	0.7%	77%
DL 827 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:15	LAX 10:45	15%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:58	LAX 19:30	16%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 331 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	LAX 22:32	19%	4%	0.7%	72%
F9 4315 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:15	LAX 12:05	20%	9%	1.0%	74%
DL 575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	LAX 00:30	22%	3%	0.7%	68%
AA 2221 American Flight history →	ATL 16:55	LAX 18:42	22%	6%	0.7%	67%
F9 3215 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:15	LAX 16:54	27%	13%	1.2%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	1h 15m Austin	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	6h 43m	94%	83%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:10 → BNA 07:15WN 179	51m Nashville	BNA 08:06 → LAX 10:32WN 400	6h 22m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → LAS 08:33DL 659	1h 13m Las Vegas	LAS 09:46 → LAX 11:00DL 1071	6h 35m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON