Today: AA 4595 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–58%.

Safest bet today AA 4595 ATL 06:05 → LGA 08:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 3458 ATL 18:35 → LGA 20:57 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4595 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 06:05	LGA 08:30	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 404 Delta Flight history →	ATL 06:00	LGA 08:10	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
YX 4809 Republic	ATL 05:53	LGA 08:12	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	LGA 09:39	16%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 4628 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 09:24	LGA 11:49	20%	5%	1.0%	91%worse than usual
DL 513 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	LGA 10:41	21%	3%	0.8%	88%
YX 4612 Republic	ATL 09:39	LGA 12:10	21%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 557 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:30	LGA 11:43	23%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:30	LGA 14:50	23%	3%	0.9%	75%
DL 460 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	LGA 15:50	24%	3%	0.8%	78%
AA 4605 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 14:58	LGA 17:23	24%	6%	1.0%	61%
DL 524 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	LGA 16:50	24%	4%	0.9%	73%
AA 4600 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 12:09	LGA 14:39	24%	9%	0.8%	77%
DL 520 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:00	LGA 23:24	25%	5%	1.2%	72%
DL 371 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:30	LGA 12:42	26%	3%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AA 4606 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 12:12	LGA 14:37	26%	9%	0.8%	77%
YX 4349 Republic	ATL 15:23	LGA 17:53	27%	6%	1.0%	no record
DL 434 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	LGA 20:27	27%	6%	1.2%	64%
AA 4662 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 19:51	LGA 22:23	27%	6%	1.2%	57%
DL 490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	LGA 22:27	28%	6%	1.2%	63%
DL 433 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:49	28%	5%	0.9%	71%
DL 997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	LGA 19:20	30%	6%	1.0%	68%
DL 468 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	LGA 21:28	30%	6%	1.2%	67%
DL 9961 Delta	ATL 21:52	LGA 23:59	30%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 4624 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 17:03	LGA 19:28	31%	8%	1.2%	55%
AA 4607 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 16:42	LGA 19:00	35%	6%	1.0%	50%
DL 467 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:30	LGA 13:42	36%	4%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
F9 3288 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:22	LGA 22:43	52%	23%	2.7%	41%
F9 3454 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:51	56%	16%	2.1%	53%
F9 3458 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:35	LGA 20:57	58%	19%	2.7%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON