Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2083 ATL 23:05 → LIT 23:41 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 3027 ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2083 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:05	LIT 23:41	20%	3%	0.2%	84%
DL 2061 Delta	ATL 17:52	LIT 18:32	22%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 3025 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:20	LIT 17:55	25%	3%	0.2%	80%
DL 2701 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	LIT 21:34	26%	4%	0.3%	79%
DL 3027 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:40	LIT 15:12	28%	3%	0.2%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON