Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:01 pm at Atlanta); 10 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2911 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:48	MCI 23:58	24%	4%	0.4%	81%
DL 3023 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:37	MCI 21:55	29%	4%	0.3%	84%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ATL 20:08 → DFW 21:36AA 2403	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036	5h 15m	66%	34%
Southwest Details →	ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:40WN 3232	55m Nashville	BNA 22:35 → MCI 00:15 +1WN 563	3h 45m	57%	33%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON