Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 21–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2517 ATL 12:20 → MDT 14:10 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest DL 2857 ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2517 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:20	MDT 14:10	21%	5%	0.3%	67%
DL 1354 Delta	ATL 12:21	MDT 14:16	21%	5%	0.3%	no record
DL 1283 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:59	MDT 23:53	22%	4%	0.4%	78%
DL 2857 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:41	MDT 17:37	24%	4%	0.3%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON