Today: DL 733 at 13:48 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet today DL 733 ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2778 ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 733 Delta	ATL 13:48	MEM 14:15	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 1681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:47	MEM 17:14	18%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 1700 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:08	MEM 15:30	18%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 8930 Delta	ATL 23:02	MEM 23:29	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 552 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	MEM 16:47	20%	4%	0.8%	73%
DL 2939 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:53	MEM 18:16	22%	5%	0.8%	78%
DL 2001 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:10	MEM 20:35	23%	5%	0.8%	76%
DL 2071 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:10	MEM 09:27	24%	4%	0.5%	90%worse than usual
DL 1577 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:49	MEM 22:12	24%	5%	0.8%	76%
DL 3020 Delta	ATL 20:09	MEM 20:34	24%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 2384 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:05	MEM 19:28	26%	5%	0.8%	59%
DL 2937 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	MEM 10:32	28%	4%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
DL 2778 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	MEM 12:32	31%	5%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
DL 5247 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 07:25	MEM 07:47	12%	6%	0.0%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON