Today: AA 1735 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–46%.

Safest bet today AA 1735 ATL 05:58 → MIA 07:56 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2272 ATL 18:27 → MIA 20:32 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 1735 American	ATL 05:58	MIA 07:56	11%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 1135 American Flight history →	ATL 05:20	MIA 07:15	12%	5%	0.5%	83%
DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	MIA 09:30	15%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 3190 American Flight history →	ATL 07:00	MIA 09:05	15%	5%	0.5%	86%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	MIA 10:57	18%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 1579 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:52	MIA 14:55	19%	5%	1.2%	76%
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:50	MIA 16:55	20%	5%	0.9%	63%
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	MIA 13:02	21%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 2526 American Flight history →	ATL 09:00	MIA 11:07	22%	6%	0.6%	84%
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:32	MIA 15:30	22%	5%	0.9%	63%
DL 1234 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:37	MIA 23:39	22%	6%	0.9%	65%
AA 512 American Flight history →	ATL 10:38	MIA 12:38	25%	7%	0.6%	79%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	ATL 10:50	MIA 12:50	25%	7%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
DL 1631 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:09	MIA 19:25	25%	6%	0.9%	51%
DL 1588 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:53	MIA 21:59	25%	6%	1.0%	66%
DL 719 Delta	ATL 16:25	MIA 18:23	27%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2880 American	ATL 17:31	MIA 19:31	30%	6%	1.0%	no record
F9 4406 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:32	MIA 10:37	31%	12%	0.8%	74%
AA 1367 American Flight history →	ATL 19:00	MIA 21:04	31%	7%	1.0%	30%
F9 3442 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 14:41	MIA 16:48	38%	14%	1.2%	51%
F9 2272 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:27	MIA 20:32	46%	16%	1.2%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON