Today: DL 2999 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet today DL 2999 ATL 08:05 → MKE 09:06 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1206 ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2999 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	MKE 09:06	12%	1%	0.3%	91%
DL 1268 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:52	MKE 23:56	14%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 2388 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:48	MKE 20:54	16%	3%	0.7%	65%
DL 1246 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:53	MKE 13:50	16%	2%	0.2%	88%
DL 1151 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:51	MKE 11:53	17%	2%	0.2%	90%
DL 2152 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:05	MKE 15:04	20%	3%	0.2%	84%
DL 1206 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:37	MKE 17:40	24%	3%	0.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON