Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:22 pm at Atlanta); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2144 at 21:32, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2144 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:32	MSN 22:38	28%	4%	0.2%	83%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	3h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599	7h 22m	98%	82%
American Details →	ATL 17:12 → DCA 19:19AA 4800 · flown by Republic	2h 05m Washington	DCA 21:24 → MSN 22:55AA 5221 · flown by PSA	6h 43m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 20:37 → MSN 20:59DL 3544 · flown by SkyWest	4h 48m	87%	63%
American Details →	ATL 16:34 → DFW 17:33AA 1008	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:36 → MSN 22:53AA 876	7h 19m	98%	56%
American Details →	ATL 18:18 → CLT 19:35AA 5067 · flown by PSA	2h 53m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → MSN 23:42AA 1426	6h 24m	94%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ATL 19:53 → ORD 21:30AA 1372	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → MSN 00:10 +1AA 3728 · flown by Envoy	5h 17m	74%	67%
United Details →	ATL 18:57 → ORD 20:23UA 1046	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:24 → MSN 22:23UA 1251	4h 26m	65%	53%
American Details →	ATL 17:34 → DFW 19:08AA 1376	1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:36 → MSN 22:53AA 876	6h 19m	58%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON