Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2668 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2668 ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1280 ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2668 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	MSP 09:00	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2960 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:44	MSP 10:18	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2901 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:17	MSP 13:50	11%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 2090 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:55	MSP 11:30	13%	2%	0.6%	90%
F9 3045 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:45	MSP 08:32	13%	7%	0.8%	64%
DL 2825 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:31	MSP 16:06	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 1310 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	MSP 00:39	14%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 2654 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:38	MSP 18:18	16%	4%	0.6%	71%
DL 2981 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:38	MSP 17:16	18%	4%	0.6%	74%
DL 1280 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:59	MSP 21:38	20%	4%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON