Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3128 at 07:35, 8%.

Safest bet that day DL 3128 ATL 07:35 → MSY 08:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1371 ATL 15:44 → MSY 16:27 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Weather 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3128 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	MSY 08:04	8%	2%	1.0%	94%
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:58	MSY 09:29	13%	2%	1.0%	92%
DL 8875 Delta	ATL 13:04	MSY 13:42	15%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	MSY 11:37	16%	2%	1.0%	87%
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	MSY 14:16	16%	3%	1.2%	83%
DL 2072 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:07	MSY 22:37	22%	5%	0.9%	73%
DL 3146 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	MSY 15:57	24%	4%	1.2%	79%
DL 678 Delta	ATL 17:49	MSY 18:29	27%	5%	1.3%	no record
DL 1450 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	MSY 20:28	28%	6%	1.0%	74%
WN 234 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 14:50	MSY 15:20	29%	5%	0.7%	50%
DL 3132 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:35	MSY 18:07	30%	5%	1.3%	74%
WN 1393 Southwest	ATL 16:40	MSY 17:21	33%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 1371 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:44	MSY 16:27	41%	14%	1.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON