Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3074 at 22:40, 22%.

Safest bet today DL 3074 ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest DL 1093 ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 3074 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	MYR 23:55	22%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 2467 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:12	MYR 15:27	31%	4%	0.4%	85%worse than usual
DL 3182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:48	MYR 13:00	33%	4%	0.5%	92%worse than usual
DL 1093 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:48	MYR 19:07	42%	6%	0.4%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON