Today: DL 2423 at 22:44 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–37%.

Safest bet today DL 2423 ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 2862 ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2423 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:44	OKC 23:52	16%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 2784 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:05	OKC 20:15	18%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 2490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:08	OKC 10:14	31%	3%	0.5%	90%worse than usual
DL 2020 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	OKC 12:12	35%	3%	0.3%	83%worse than usual
DL 2862 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	OKC 16:22	37%	4%	0.3%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON