Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2632 ATL 08:10 → OMA 09:28 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2707 ATL 19:30 → OMA 20:54 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2632 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	OMA 09:28	16%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 2364 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	OMA 17:48	20%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 2010 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:28	OMA 23:49	23%	5%	0.7%	74%
DL 1125 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:26	OMA 12:45	24%	3%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
DL 2707 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:30	OMA 20:54	25%	5%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON