Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1266 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1266 ATL 07:05 → PBI 08:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 1606 ATL 20:30 → PBI 22:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1266 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:05	PBI 08:55	7%	2%	0.9%	87%
DL 1311 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	PBI 09:56	9%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 838 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:58	PBI 15:50	15%	5%	0.8%	79%
DL 1458 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:27	PBI 17:22	16%	6%	0.8%	75%
DL 1190 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:03	PBI 12:54	16%	4%	0.9%	81%
DL 1065 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	PBI 00:51	18%	6%	0.8%	71%
DL 1527 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:52	PBI 11:45	18%	4%	0.9%	82%
DL 959 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	PBI 18:36	19%	5%	0.8%	74%
DL 1058 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	PBI 20:51	21%	6%	0.9%	62%
DL 1606 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:30	PBI 22:22	25%	7%	0.9%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON