Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 539 ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 691 ATL 19:48 → PDX 21:54 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 539 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	PDX 10:27	12%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 2206 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	PDX 12:58	13%	3%	0.8%	84%
DL 503 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:52	PDX 18:56	14%	4%	0.8%	74%
AS 783 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 18:00	PDX 20:24	15%	4%	0.8%	83%
DL 357 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:40	PDX 21:44	18%	5%	0.8%	74%
DL 691 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:48	PDX 21:54	19%	5%	0.8%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 06:25 → DEN 07:30WN 2114	1h 01m Denver	DEN 08:31 → PDX 10:14WN 3459	6h 49m	91%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	7h 23m	96%	80%
Southwest Details →	ATL 08:00 → MDW 08:55WN 1270	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → PDX 12:25WN 2809	7h 25m	90%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON