Today: OH 5459 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–43%.

Safest bet today OH 5459 ATL 08:25 → PHL 10:34 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2552 ATL 17:02 → PHL 19:20 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


OH 5459 PSA	ATL 08:25	PHL 10:34	13%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 1428 American Flight history →	ATL 07:05	PHL 09:15	14%	4%	0.5%	91%
DL 2270 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	PHL 10:57	14%	3%	0.3%	87%
AA 5461 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 12:30	PHL 14:39	15%	7%	1.2%	70%
DL 1100 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	PHL 09:31	15%	3%	0.3%	86%
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	PHL 13:24	15%	3%	0.3%	86%
AA 5250 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 12:47	PHL 15:03	15%	7%	1.2%	94%
DL 2642 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:56	PHL 00:59	16%	3%	0.8%	78%
AA 5037 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 09:45	PHL 11:55	17%	7%	1.1%	87%
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	PHL 15:02	17%	4%	0.3%	73%
AA 1590 American Flight history →	ATL 18:29	PHL 20:40	18%	7%	1.3%	59%
DL 1174 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:23	PHL 22:27	19%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 2065 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:15	PHL 21:20	19%	5%	0.8%	65%
AA 597 American	ATL 18:53	PHL 20:59	19%	7%	2.2%	no record
AA 621 American Flight history →	ATL 14:15	PHL 16:30	20%	5%	0.5%	65%
AA 3083 American Flight history →	ATL 14:25	PHL 16:37	21%	4%	0.5%	59%
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:00	PHL 16:04	22%	4%	0.3%	69%
DL 1169 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:05	PHL 17:12	24%	7%	0.4%	70%
DL 1329 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:05	PHL 18:12	28%	8%	0.4%	62%
F9 2298 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:10	PHL 12:22	32%	18%	0.9%	68%
F9 1102 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:17	PHL 22:33	39%	18%	1.3%	47%
F9 2552 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:02	PHL 19:20	43%	23%	1.2%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON