Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2983 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 2983 ATL 07:15 → PHX 08:22 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2607 ATL 18:36 → PHX 19:44 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2983 Southwest	ATL 07:15	PHX 08:22	21%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 366 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	PHX 14:18	22%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PHX 12:03	22%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	PHX 09:01	25%	3%	0.5%	81%
DL 757 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:40	PHX 21:34	26%	6%	0.7%	71%
DL 929 Delta	ATL 20:49	PHX 21:51	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 883 American	ATL 17:54	PHX 19:12	26%	9%	0.8%	no record
DL 836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	PHX 18:53	27%	6%	0.7%	73%
DL 842 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:45	PHX 22:39	28%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 1777 American Flight history →	ATL 07:48	PHX 09:00	29%	7%	0.4%	88%worse than usual
AA 3012 American Flight history →	ATL 18:13	PHX 19:25	30%	10%	0.8%	45%
WN 4758 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 15:40	PHX 16:35	34%	8%	0.6%	40%
WN 493 Southwest	ATL 20:40	PHX 21:45	37%	8%	0.6%	no record
F9 2607 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:36	PHX 19:44	44%	21%	1.2%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:10 → BNA 07:15WN 179	50m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770	5h 30m	82%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON