Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1380 ATL 07:30 → PIT 09:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2583 ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	PIT 09:11	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1345 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PIT 12:52	9%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 1353 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:08	PIT 15:50	9%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1363 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	PIT 10:45	9%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1351 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:04	PIT 00:50	11%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 1568 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	PIT 17:08	11%	3%	0.7%	84%
WN 1283 Southwest	ATL 09:55	PIT 11:42	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2583 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:14	PIT 23:00	15%	3%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON