Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2314 ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 2147 ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2314 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:02	PVD 16:29	13%	4%	0.8%	80%
DL 2659 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:40	PVD 20:09	16%	5%	1.0%	76%
DL 2064 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:27	PVD 23:57	16%	5%	1.0%	71%
DL 2147 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	PVD 12:29	17%	3%	0.7%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON