Today: DL 1175 at 23:08 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–26%.

Safest bet today DL 1175 ATL 23:08 → RIC 00:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 1426 ATL 20:12 → RIC 21:54 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1175 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:08	RIC 00:49	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 1214 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:46	RIC 16:23	22%	4%	0.3%	83%
DL 3152 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:31	RIC 14:12	23%	4%	0.2%	83%
DL 1348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:12	RIC 18:53	23%	5%	0.3%	77%
DL 1437 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:30	RIC 14:05	25%	4%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
DL 1263 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:30	RIC 20:11	25%	6%	0.4%	77%
DL 1426 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:12	RIC 21:54	26%	6%	0.4%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON