Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1124 at 17:07, 35%.

Safest bet today DL 1124 ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest DL 1736 ATL 19:28 → RSW 21:13 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1124 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:07	RSW 18:55	35%	9%	0.4%	74%
DL 1196 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:53	RSW 14:35	35%	6%	0.5%	85%worse than usual
DL 1379 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:59	RSW 16:44	37%	9%	0.5%	72%
DL 1736 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:28	RSW 21:13	37%	9%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON