Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 725 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 725 ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 819 ATL 19:49 → SAN 21:16 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 725 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	SAN 09:26	15%	2%	0.8%	88%
DL 540 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:50	SAN 13:08	18%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 843 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	SAN 11:40	19%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 924 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:37	SAN 17:16	25%	5%	0.8%	77%
DL 680 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:10	SAN 19:35	25%	5%	0.8%	63%
DL 712 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:01	SAN 19:40	26%	5%	0.8%	80%
DL 896 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:28	SAN 22:57	26%	5%	0.8%	76%
DL 819 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:49	SAN 21:16	30%	5%	0.8%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:10 → BNA 07:15WN 179	50m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → SAN 10:11WN 705	6h 01m	89%	75%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	55m Las Vegas	LAS 12:57 → SAN 14:13DL 3741 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	79%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON