Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1676 at 08:20, 21%.

Safest bet today DL 1676 ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1222 ATL 20:52 → SAT 22:19 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 1676 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	SAT 09:43	21%	4%	0.6%	92%worse than usual
DL 1465 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:40	SAT 17:11	27%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 1140 Southwest	ATL 16:35	SAT 18:11	28%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1121 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:46	SAT 11:09	30%	4%	0.5%	83%worse than usual
DL 2893 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:09	SAT 20:37	31%	5%	0.7%	75%
DL 2009 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	SAT 15:10	32%	9%	0.4%	81%worse than usual
WN 416 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 13:15	SAT 14:40	33%	6%	0.2%	69%
DL 1408 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	SAT 13:38	33%	4%	0.5%	86%worse than usual
DL 1222 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:52	SAT 22:19	36%	6%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON