Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2624 ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 2842 ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:05 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2624 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:02	SDF 00:26	18%	4%	0.2%	85%
DL 3093 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	SDF 21:18	21%	4%	0.1%	79%
DL 2842 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:39	SDF 22:05	23%	5%	0.1%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON