Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 629 at 12:33 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 629 ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 348 ATL 08:54 → SEA 11:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 629 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:33	SEA 14:50	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 481 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:38	SEA 16:49	12%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 648 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	SEA 13:35	12%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 444 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:40	SEA 09:54	13%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 472 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	SEA 19:05	15%	4%	0.7%	70%
DL 774 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	SEA 12:13	16%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 714 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	SEA 20:11	18%	4%	0.7%	67%
DL 834 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:22	SEA 21:48	19%	4%	0.7%	56%
AS 377 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 07:00	SEA 09:26	19%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 903 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:35	SEA 23:59	21%	4%	0.7%	79%
AS 218 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 16:18	SEA 18:46	22%	5%	0.7%	62%
AS 348 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 08:54	SEA 11:20	24%	3%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	7h 43m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:59 → GEG 11:40DL 787	1h 20m Spokane	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	7h 26m	95%	81%
Alaska Details →	ATL 18:00 → PDX 20:24AS 783	1h 06m Portland	PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon	7h 27m	89%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON