Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 25–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 854 ATL 13:43 → SGF 14:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2758 ATL 17:15 → SGF 18:08 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 854 Delta	ATL 13:43	SGF 14:40	25%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 1105 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:16	SGF 22:10	26%	7%	0.2%	74%
DL 2758 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:15	SGF 18:08	27%	6%	0.2%	71%
DL 4854 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 13:49	SGF 14:45	30%	9%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON