Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:10 pm at Atlanta); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 4095 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 21:15	SHV 22:04	26%	8%	0.3%	63%
DL 3505 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 19:05	SHV 19:52	29%	10%	0.4%	62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Shreveport on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Shreveport is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ATL 18:57 → IAH 20:15UA 2376	1h 25m Houston	IAH 21:40 → SHV 22:44UA 5395 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	89%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON