Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 933 ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 2136 ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 933 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	SJC 22:49	12%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 809 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	SJC 11:30	13%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2136 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:59	SJC 18:52	13%	3%	0.7%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 06:25 → DEN 07:30WN 2114	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:30 → SJC 10:06WN 1775	6h 41m	94%	88%
Southwest Details →	ATL 06:00 → AUS 07:20WN 4363	55m Austin	AUS 08:15 → SJC 09:45WN 398	6h 45m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260	7h 08m	93%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON