tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 423 ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 387 ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time
Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 423 Delta Flight history → ATL 13:55 SLC 15:51 15% 2% 0.7% 86%
DL 663 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:56 SLC 13:50 15% 2% 0.8% 88%
DL 830 Delta Flight history → ATL 08:15 SLC 10:14 17% 2% 0.3% 89%
DL 526 Delta Flight history → ATL 15:20 SLC 17:18 18% 2% 0.7% 82%
DL 660 Delta Flight history → ATL 19:34 SLC 21:37 20% 3% 0.7% 76%
DL 453 Delta Flight history → ATL 22:25 SLC 00:26 21% 4% 0.7% 75%
DL 653 Delta Flight history → ATL 17:55 SLC 19:56 21% 3% 0.7% 80%
DL 387 Delta Flight history → ATL 10:10 SLC 12:10 22% 3% 0.2% 92%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → ATL 06:25 → DEN 07:30WN 2114 1h 06m Denver DEN 08:36 → SLC 10:06WN 3502 5h 41m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → ATL 11:55 → DEN 13:00DL 706 1h 02m Denver DEN 14:02 → SLC 15:34DL 8924 5h 39m 86% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON